Championship play-offs: Southampton told ‘most likely scenario’ ahead of spygate decision
Championship play-off hopefuls Southampton are likely to receive a heavy fine and a points deduction next season after spying on Middlesbrough.
That is according to former Manchester City financial adviser Stefan Borson, who exclusively told Football Insider the penalty could be worth up to six points and £1million.
After securing a semi-final victory over Middlesbrough, Southampton are now preparing for a Wembley showdown on 23 May against Hull City, who saw off Millwall to reach the final.
However, uncertainty remains around the fixture after the Saints have been charged by the EFL with observing one of the Teesside club’s training sessions before the first leg at the Riverside Stadium.
A hearing conducted by an independent disciplinary commission is now set to take place on or before Tuesday (19 May).
Could Southampton be thrown out of Championship play-offs?
Middlesbrough released a statement on Friday (15 May) insisting the only appropriate response to the allegations is to ban Southampton from participating in the final.
Kim Hellberg’s side have not been permitted to take part in the hearing, but they are expected to resume training early this week in preparation for them potentially facing Hull at Wembley.
| Stats | Southampton | Middlesbrough |
| Possession | 61% | 39% |
| Shots | 17 | 15 |
| Shots on target | 7 | 3 |
| Fouls committed | 15 | 19 |
| Corners | 11 | 5 |
Speaking exclusively to Football Insider, Borson discussed whether Southampton could be removed from the Championship play-offs.
“There’s not going to be a lot of time to collate all the evidence,” said Borson.
“They’ll establish that there was a breach of the rules and it’s not the first time they’ve done it, and they’ll want to send a signal that it’s not acceptable. Do I think that they can conclude that the right punishment is to throw them out of the play-offs entirely? That feels excessive to me.
“Now, I’m not sure it would be appealable if that’s what they come up, just because there’s not a lot of guidance and the appeal board will have to defer in many ways to whatever they came up with.
“They might not win an appeal if that was the decision that they’re thrown out the play-offs, but it just seems to me that it’s unlikely.”
How Southampton could avoid points deduction next season
Borson revealed a points deduction is only anticipated if Southampton remain in the Championship next season.
“The most likely scenario is that they get a points deduction for next season if they’re in the EFL, and probably not a points deduction in the Premier League,” said Borson.
“I guess it’s possible that they say, ‘If you’re in the EFL, it’s six points. We’ll make a recommendation to the Premier League, who can ignore it’. Frankly, there’s no requirement on the Premier League to accept any recommendation from this disciplinary.
“They’re not handing over the process to the Premier League, which is the other option that could have been taken. If Southampton would have got promoted, they could have handed over the whole thing, but they wanted to get it done before the play-off.
“My best guess would be six points next season and a £500,000 to £1m fine. We’ll see this week whether I’m in the ballpark.”
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