Man United above Liverpool in alternative Premier League table
Manchester United (10th) are currently eight places behind Liverpool (2nd) in the Premier League, but an alternative table suggests the Red Devils deserve to be ahead of their rivals.
You may have finally gotten used to hearing expected goals (xG) being used as common football parlance these says, whether you agree with the concept or not.
What may take a little while longer to get used you is expected points (xP), but it is worth mentioning that top clubs use these metrics to measure the underlying performances of their managers, and they are integral when it comes to making big decisions.
Expected points is derived from using game-by-game xG figures to see how a Premier League table would look if games were only won, drawn and lost based on xG performance.
As a result, we are able to see which teams are lucky to be as high as they are, and which teams are likely to make a leap up the table once their players start finishing the chances they are supposed to.
Man United should be above Liverpool
Data provided by Understat suggests that, despite Rubem Amorim being under immense manager, Man United deserve to be in sixth place in the Premier League this season based on the quality of their performances, while Liverpool should be one spot below them in seventh.
Indeed, according to Understat, Man United are deserving of around 12 points based on performance levels, while they in reality they have actually earned 10 points.
Liverpool meanwhile are adjudged to be deserving of around 11 points, which is a way back from the 15 points they have earned in reality.
Much of United’s underperformance has been due to the their players’ finishing – they have underperformed their xG by 4.97 according the Understat, the second most of any team, after Crystal Palace (-5.54).
Arsenal are deserving of top spot, but Manchester City should be second
According to Understat’s table, it is entirely fair that Arsenal are sitting at the top of the table during the October international break, although they are between one and two points better off than they should be.
Arsenal have conceded two goals fewer than the xG suggests they should have, but this potentially points to the benefits of having a world class goalkeeper, with David Raya labeled the ‘best in the Premier League’ in his position.
Meanwhile, it should be Man City, rather than Liverpool, putting pressure on the Gunners in second place.
Pep Guardiola‘s side are no doubt much improved on last season, and they were seconds away from additional points this season against Brighton and Arsenal.
Tottenham have been the luckiest, and Wolves the most unlucky
Thomas Frank‘s Spurs have been the luckiest side in the division so far, earning over five points more than would have been expected based on the quality of their performances.
Indeed, Understat’s table has them all the way down in the 13th place, with the side overperforming in front of goal, while their opponents have themselves underperformed in the penalty area.
Spurs have recorded a lower xG total than their opponents in each of their last three league matches, but managed to avoid defeat on each occasion.
Wolves sit bottom of the Premier League in reality, but they should be on six points while sitting just outside of the relegation zone according to Understat.
The difference between their real points and their expected points is the largest in the league for underperforming sides.
This data could go some way to explaining why the Wolves hierarchy decided to back manager Vitor Pereira and award him with a new contract.
The full table for expected points
The full table can be found below.
- Green numbers mean a team is doing better than expected.
- Red numbers mean a team is doing worse than expected.
- The small number next to the xG value shows the difference between expected and actual performance.