Real Madrid midfielder Jude Bellingham celebrates for England at the World Cup, with the World Cup trophy inset

Jude Bellingham is leading England to the World CupImago

Supercomputer releases new prediction on England winning World Cup as semi-final awaits

Correspondent AUTHORITY Football journalist with experience at Reach PLC and PA Media; University of Central Lancashire graduate. FOCUS Fan-engagement content and match analysis across the Premier League and Championship. THE INSIGHT Oliver utilises a network of club and industry contacts to deliver verified reporting and fan-first content. He provides the human stories behind the results to ensure fans get the full picture as it happens.

Published on:

13 Jul 2026, 2:30 pm

Opta's supercomputer has England as third-favourites to win the World Cup as they are backed to beat Argentina in the semi-final on Wednesday.

The Three Lions have made it to the World Cup semi-final stage for just the fourth time in their history this summer.

Jude Bellingham's brace was enough to see Norway off in extra time on Saturday as he continued a memorable tournament campaign.

Old rivals Argentina lay in wait for Thomas Tuchel's side in the semis after their 3-1 quarter-final defeat of Switzerland.

Opta's latest supercomputer predictions are backing England to progress to the final, but they are not among the favourites to lift the trophy next weekend.

France and Spain will do battle in the first semi on Tuesday, with the final set for Sunday evening in New Jersey.

England given 22.62 per cent chance of winning the World Cup

England know they will need to be at their best to beat the reigning World champions, who also have Lionel Messi firing on all cylinders.

Opta are backing them to do so, however, with the Three Lions given a 39.1 per cent chance of winning in 90 minutes to Argentina's 31.6 per cent and a 52.89 per cent chance of progressing to the final.

France are being predicted to beat Spain to make the final, and they are Opta's current favourites to lift the trophy at 33.58 per cent likely.

Even though Spain are set to be beaten in the semis, they still retain a better chance of winning the tournament than the other two teams, with a 23.84 per cent chance to England's 22.62.

Ex-refs chief: Lautaro Martinez 'should be banned' for England vs Argentina: 'He's broken the law'

How to watch England vs Argentina

Former FIFA official, Keith Hackett, has told Football Insider that Argentina striker Lautaro Martinez "should be banned" for the semi-final after he jumped over the advertising hoardings and celebrated with their fans following his goal against Switzerland while on a booking.

He will be able to play, however, while the Three Lions have everyone but Jarell Quansah available after his two-match ban for the red he was shown against Mexico.

The game kicks off at 8pm on Wednesday, 15 July, with viewers in the UK able to watch live on BBC One and iPlayer.

Coverage starts at 7pm, with Spain and France's semi clash on Tuesday set to be shown on ITV.

Jude Bellingham

Worldcup 2026