England head coach Thomas Tuchel during 2026 World Cup qualification.
Thomas Tuchel is the England head coach for the 2026 World Cup.Imago

England's worst-possible route to World Cup final reveal after opening win vs Croatia

Harri Burton

Senior Correspondent AUTHORITY Senior football journalist specialising in refereeing and officiating; former contributor to The Football League Paper, Late Tackle, and the Premier League; University of Derby graduate. FOCUS Refereeing controversies, football finance and governance, PGMOL decisions, and officiating analysis across the Premier League, EFL, and SPFL. THE INSIGHT Harri utilises a network of officiating and industry contacts to deliver verified, expert analysis of refereeing decisions and PGMOL policy. He provides the regulatory clarity behind the controversy to ensure fans get the full picture.

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Thomas Tuchel's England side are far from guaranteed an easy route to the 2026 World Cup final despite their opening-game win over Croatia.

Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford were all on target as the Three Lions put four past their opponents in a six-goal thriller on Wednesday, 17 June.

The Croatians were able to peg England back twice in the first half, but the talent on show managed to shine through for the 1966 winners.

After claiming three points against the second-highest ranked team in Group L, other than themselves, England are now favourites to finish first.

Of course, neither Ghana nor Panama should be underestimated in the next two games, but all signs point towards an easy exit from Group L for Tuchel's side.

However, the World Cup is filled to the brim with exciting talents, and a new challenge will be waiting just around the corner should they proceed to the knockout stages bar any disasters.

How England could face France, Brazil and Argentina

The Three Lions' worst-case scenario all rests on Group I, which has been labelled the "group of death" due to Norway, France Senegal and Iraq all battling it out.

Should Didier Deschamps' side finish third, England would have a very tough meeting with the French in the round of 32.

Even Norway or Senegal represent a huge challenge, though, and what could be waiting through that door is a meeting with Mexico, a team fighting in their own backyard.

If Tuchel's side can advance, that's when it gets really interesting. The winners of Group C, likely Brazil or Morocco, could be their opponents for the quarter-finals.

Morocco looked far better in the opening game, so oddly, some supporters might be wishing that Carlos Ancelotti's side can pull off a first-place finish.

That is likely to leave a semi-final clash against Lionel Messi's Argentina, and having already scored a hat-trick, he will have his eyes on the World Cup Golden Boot, undoubtedly.

Once again, it's a big if, but if England can get through yet another stage, a final against Spain likely awaits, who are the one team expected to be at the New York New Jersey Stadium on Sunday, 19 July.

England head coach Thomas Tuchel during 2026 World Cup qualification.
What England need to do to secure easy World Cup Round of 32 match after win vs Croatia
England head coach Thomas Tuchel during 2026 World Cup qualification.
World Cup: Supercomputer predicts 2026 winner as England look to end 60 years of hurt

How have the predicted 2026 World Cup winners shifted?

All teams have now played their opening games of the World Cup, and it is no clearer as to who could be lifting the trophy at the end of the tournament.

Before kick-off, Opta gave England a 10.58 per cent chance of winning the tournament, and despite beating Croatia, they have drifted to 10.15 per cent.

Unsurprisingly, Spain were the favourites heading into the summer, being given a 15.59 per cent chance, which has now dropped to 12.5 after their draw with Curacao.

France have the best chance at 16.1 per cent, having started at 12.75 per cent, while Argentina have a 12.59 per cent chance of retaining the World Cup title.

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