Thomas Tuchel on sideline looking happy at World Cup trophy on podium right inset

England manager Thomas Tuchel with World Cup trophyImago

Supercomputer makes new prediction on England winning World Cup as quarter-final ties confirmed

Correspondent AUTHORITY Football journalist with experience at Reach PLC and PA Media; University of Central Lancashire graduate. FOCUS Fan-engagement content and match analysis across the Premier League and Championship. THE INSIGHT Oliver utilises a network of club and industry contacts to deliver verified reporting and fan-first content. He provides the human stories behind the results to ensure fans get the full picture as it happens.

Published on:

08 Jul 2026, 8:06 am

England's chances of winning the World Cup have improved since each of the quarter-final match-ups were confirmed in the last few days.

Thomas Tuchel's side reached the last eight of the tournament with a hard-fought 3-2 win over Mexico in the early hours of Monday morning.

Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have been key to their run so far and will be looking to get one over Erling Haaland as England face Norway on Saturday night.

Reigning champions Argentina were minutes away from crashing out in the round of 16 before they came back to beat Egypt 3-2 on Tuesday.

They will now face Switzerland in the quarters, with the winner of that tie facing the winner of the Three Lions' clash against Norway.

On the other side of the draw, France and Morocco will kick off the next round on Thursday evening, while Spain and Belgium face off on Friday.

Opta's supercomputer has been calculating their predictions for the World Cup every day since it started, and England's chances of success are improving as the final gets closer.

England see World Cup triumph chances improve ahead of quarter-finals

England have lost just one of their last 19 competitive matches, but Norway will certainly not be a pushover as they take part in their first World Cup since 1998.

Directly after the Mexico win, the supercomputer gave England a 59.84 per cent chance of getting past the Norwegians, and a 16.53 per cent chance of winning the whole thing come 19 July.

Those figures now sit at 61.90 per cent and 17.06 per cent after each of the quarter-finals were confirmed by Tuesday night.

France are still being heavily backed to lift the trophy, at 27.62 per cent likely, while Spain are second-favourites with Opta at 21.54 per cent.

Jarell Quansah 'must be allowed 'to play for England vs Norway after 'shock decision' - ex-FIFA official

How to watch England vs Norway

Former FIFA official Keith Hackett has told Football Insider that Jarell Quansah's red card against Mexico should be overturned after USA striker Folarin Balogun was allowed to face Belgium despite being sent off in the previous game.

England's third quarter-final in as many World Cup tournaments will kick off at 10pm on Saturday, 11 July from the Miami Stadium.

Viewers in the UK will be able to tune in live on ITV1, ITVX and STV, with coverage starting from 8:45pm.

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