Can their determination to prove the doubters wrong help Chelsea come good?
Jose Mourinho is barred from the Britannia Stadium for Saturday’s match but Andrew Atherley believes his team can relieve the pressure with victory over low-scoring Stoke
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Stoke v Chelsea
Saturday November 7, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports 1
Stoke
Mark Hughes’s team are 14th, one place and two points above the visitors. Probably not where they would expect to be after two consecutive top-ten finishes under the current manager, but their form is improving steadily with only one defeat in their last six games (eight if you include two games in the Capital One Cup).
One of those cup games was against Chelsea and Stoke went through on penalties after being pegged back to 1-1 by a late Loic Remy equaliser and then holding out with 10 men for the 30 minutes of extra-time after Phil Bardsley was sent off.
Mame Biram Diouf, who played the whole of that cup game following compassionate leave before being left on the bench for last weekend’s goalless draw at Newcastle, is in contention for a return to the starting line-up. Jonathan Walters could drop out, in what may be Hughes’s only change from the Newcastle game.
Geoff Cameron has only just returned to full training, and Marc Muniesa and Shay Given are longer-term absentees. Marco Van Ginkel, on loan from Chelsea, is ineligible to face his parent club.
Chelsea
The Stamford Bridge faithful left no doubt that their loyalties lie with Jose Mourinho with their vociferous backing for the under-pressure manager during Wednesday’s hard-fought 2-1 home win over Dynamo Kiev in the Champions League.
That sent a message to Roman Abramovich and to any player who is anything less than committed to the Mourinho cause, and there was no lack of fight from the Chelsea side even if last season’s quality and assurance still appeared to be lacking as they struggled to overcome Dynamo.
Mourinho won’t be in the Britannia to hear the Chelsea fans this time as he serves a one-match stadium ban for abusing the referee at half-time of his side’s 2-1 defeat at West Ham in their last away game in the Premier League.
Missing on the pitch are first-choice goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, who is set to be out with a knee injury until December, and Falcao. Branislav Ivanovic is close to making a return to action, although it is questionable whether his availability would be a boost given his poor form this season.
Match Odds
The line-ups for the Capital One Cup clash were close to full strength – if anything, Chelsea were nearer to their first-choice line-up – and so that is a good reference point for this second bout in 11 days.
Stoke led after 52 minutes through Walters before Remy equalised in stoppage time, followed quickly by Bardsley’s dismissal, but the stats were in Chelsea’s favour – 59% possession, 24 shots to 11 (nine to five on target), 11 corners to two.
To a great extent, that reflected the form of the two teams this season. Stoke largely lacked a cutting edge (they are the lowest scorers in the Premier League, with nine goals in 11 games) while Chelsea showed plenty of determination and created good chances but were vulnerable at the back once again (only four clean sheets in 18 games this season in all competitions).
The inclination is to oppose Chelsea, who have won just two of their last 10 away matches in all competitions (W2 D3 L5), but they are creating considerably more opportunities than Stoke and most of their problems have come against better-class sides with fluent attacks.
Chelsea have a W2 D2 L0 record against current bottom-half teams and have scored nine goals in those four games, which indicates a good chance of scoring and therefore of winning against low-scoring Stoke.
Unless the hosts keep a clean sheet, which is a difficult task judged on Chelsea’s figures, it is hard to fancy them for a win. Hughes’s side have a W1 D5 L3 record when conceding in all competitions this season.
Chelsea still have most of the quality in this match despite their problems and, with a little trepidation in going against the initial inclination, they rate the bet at 2.10.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The general trend in Stoke-Chelsea clashes over the years has been towards the lower end (10 out of 17 under 2.5 goals in all competitions since Stoke joined the Premier League).
That has been mainly due to Stoke’s problems breaching the Chelsea defence (11 blanks in those 17 meetings) and that might continue here, given their paucity of goals this season. Eight of the 11 head-to-heads in which Stoke failed to score had under 2.5 goals.
Stoke have had eight out of 11 under 2.5 goals this season, but against that is Chelsea’s dramatic rise towards the top of the goals chart. Only free-scoring Leicester’s games average more goals than Chelsea’s (3.45 average goal total per game) and Mourinho’s side have had nine out of 11 over 2.5 goals.
A large part of the equation is whether Stoke are going to score, and the more obvious call is under 2.5 goals at 1.82.
Chelsea Win To Nil
Last season this was a sound option (15 of their 26 wins were gained in this fashion) but it has become less so with their shaky defensive record this season. Even so, half of their six wins in all competitions have been to nil and nobody loves a clean sheet more than Mourinho.
If Chelsea are to start winning on a more regular basis, they need to get back to shutting out the opposition and this could be a good starting point.
The Chelsea win to nil has to be worth some consideration at around the 3.50 mark.
Recommended Bet
Back Chelsea to beat Stoke at 2.10 (1pt)
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