Chelsea v Southampton Preview: Get your overs bets on and umbrellas up as goal downpour floods Chelsea v Southampton
Two teams looking to stabilise their seasons after substandard starts meet at Stamford Bridge, with one point and four places dividing the pair.
Amazingly, those places occupied by our protagonists are tenth and 14th, and what’s perhaps even more noteworthy is that it’s the hosts residing in the lower standing.
Having played seven Premier League games and won just twice, Chelsea find themselves on eight points with their title-retaining prospects in tatters.
Southampton will also have had big plans for 2015/16, having surprised the majority of punters with their seventh-place finish last time around.
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Yet, like their next opponents, the strong start that brought them so much joy last time around has evaded them this.
Both have demonstrated signs of revival in recent top-tier games, but it’s undoubtedly Chelsea who are in greater need of the points here and their desperation blended with a lack of self-belief at the back plays right into the hands of counter-attacking Southampton.
Win, Lose or Draw?
Since returning to the Premier League ahead of the 2012/13 edition, the Saints have fared relatively well against Jose Mourinho’s men.
In six top-flight meetings, they’ve lost just twice, picking up a pair of draws in west London along the way.
Travelling stalemates are fast becoming Southampton’s 2015/16 specialty, having visited three divisional foes so far and returned from each with a share of the spoils.
Their three draws to date were at Newcastle, Watford and West Brom; three teams not known for their attacking excellence, nor are they sides compelled to win every home game they play.
While the former may not be applicable to Chelsea, the latter certainly is and the Blues will be expansive in their attempts to beat Ronald Koeman’s men.
In previous seasons, they’ve pushed forward safe in the knowledge their ironclad rearguard will extinguish any issues that arise from the squandering of possession, but their backline has lost their formidability in recent weeks.
From 11 matches across all competitions so far, they’ve managed a paltry two shut outs and improving this record will be tough against a team with 15 from their last five.
This discrepancy between home defence and travelling attack makes the visitors’ 4/1 an enormous price, but an odds-against double-chance offering is the way to go here.
Recommended bet: Southampton win or draw double-chance @ 21/20
Over/Under?
Last season overs backers would’ve been thwarted in both incarnations of this fixture, but if those same punters stay true to their blue-sky-thinking strategy, they will claim some retribution from the bookies.
As stated above, Saints’ last five games have yielded an average of three goals and Chelsea’s porous defence is sure to afford them plenty of opportunities to maintain it.
Since the opening weekend of the season, the champions have been involved in a staggering ten over 2.5-goal games, with six of these soaring north of the 3.5 line.
Even if Southampton haven’t found the net in two straight away league games, it’s not unreasonable to expect another four goals minimum here.
Recommended bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 2/1
Who’s going to score?
Sadio Mane has hit a patch not quite plum-coloured enough to be considered purple, but, like a ripening bruise, it’s getting that way.
The Senegalese winger has hit three in his previous two outings and he was also on target when these two met at St Mary’s last term.
Recommended bet: Sadio Mane to score any time @ 15/4
Betting off the beaten track
Southampton come into this one having not leaked in two road games, but prior to this recent frugal spate, they’d shipped exactly two on five straight Premier League away days.
The hosts have scored two in as many of Saints’ previous four visits to the Bridge, though this would’ve been three had Demba Ba not made it 3-1 to Chelsea in their 2013/14 duel.
Mourinho’s men have found the net exactly twice in half of their base camp battles thus far, expect that to increase with Southampton in town.
Recommended bet: Chelsea to score exactly two @ 12/5
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Article supplied courtesy of News.Bwin.com