Revealed: Super League number-crunchers predict where Liverpool and Man City would finish in breakaway competition
By Adam Williams in Brussels.
The organisers of the Super League have used data modelling to conclude that Man City are the most likely team to win a revised version of the breakaway competition, Football Insider has learned.
The FiveThirtyEight Soccer Power Index was applied to simulate 1000 seasons of the Super League for the purposes of calculating the revenues each participating team could earn.
The findings were presented by A22 Sports Management – the company representing remaining Super League clubs Real Madrid, Barcelona and Juventus – at a summit attended by Football Insider in Brussels last Friday (13 January).
According to A22’s model, City would have an 18.75 per cent chance of winning the Super League if they reverse their April 2021 decision to withdraw from the competition.
Bayern Munich (15 per cent) are the next most likely champions, followed by Liverpool (11 per cent), Barcelona (9 per cent), Real Madrid (7.5 per cent), Chelsea (6.5 per cent), and Man United (5.5 per cent).
The data was presented by Antón Garcia, senior vice president of Compass Lexicon, a Chicago-based economic consultancy firm employed by A22.
The simulation was conducted on the basis of a 20-team Super League, with the 12 original founder members included alongside eight newcomers.
A22 appear undeterred despite a recent preliminary ruling from the European Court of Justice that Uefa and Fifa should be permitted to punish teams and players who sign up for breakaway leagues.
City’s participation meanwhile would likely hinge on whether an independent regulator, for which the government is expected to outline a remit by the end of the month, has the power to veto English clubs’ attempts to join up.
In other news, ex-Premier League referee hits back at Pep Guardiola after controversial Man City quotes emerge.