Premier League Tactical Preview, Weekend 7/11: Ozil v Dier will be a battle to savour
Alex Keble returns with his regular analysis of four key tactical battles ahead of the weekend action in the Premier League, including how Everton can beat West Ham, and who Remi Garde must play to nullify Man City
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Gueye v De Bruyne
Aston Villa v Man City
Sunday, 13:30, Live on Sky Sports 1
Remi Garde’s first match in charge could hardly be more difficult. Following the 3-1 defeat at Spurs, the Frenchman has inherited a Villa squad desperately low on confidence and catastrophically disjointed creatively; the only sensible approach on Sunday will be a rugged, backs-to-the-wall performance that forces Man City to carefully pick holes.
David Silva is unlikely to start, and thus it is Kevin de Bruyne’s artistry that presents the key threat to Villa’s defence. Averaging three key passes per game, De Bruyne has already amassed four assists in seven games for his new club from a drifting left wing position.
Though many seem bemused by Manuel Pellegrini’s decision not to play De Bruyne centrally, the idea is to release the Belgian of man-markers in a congested central zone; lurking wide before exploiting the central space left vacant by midfielders tightly marking Raheem Sterling can, in theory, allow De Bruyne to flourish more easily.
Idrissa Gueye is likely to be recalled by Villa’s new manager, and his positional awareness in central midfield will be vitally important to prevent De Bruyne from ghosting into pockets of space unseen. Gueye has averaged four tackles and 3.6 interception per match, excelling at a time when his fellow midfielders – Ashley Westwood and Carlos Sanchez – look increasingly overwhelmed.
Recommended Bet:
Back Man City to score over 2.5 goals at 13/8
Lingard v Dawson
Man Utd v West Brom
Saturday, 15:00
Successive Premier League 0-0 draws had confirmed that Anthony Martial was the sole creative threat in this United team, but an excellent performance by Jesse Lingard in midweek has given Louis van Gaal another option. Against the deep-lying brick wall of Tony Pulis’s West Brom, the relentless low tempo passing football favoured by United could be nullified very easily; as Yohan Cabaye pointed out last week, “they can keep the ball – passes, passes, passes – but if you work hard against them and stay in a good shape they can’t do anything to pass through you or be adventurous.”
One of the main reasons for this creative stagnancy (aside from the short-passing formula and Wayne Rooney’s poor form) is the loss of Luke Shaw. In the early weeks of the season, Shaw’s overlapping runs added width and directness to United’s attacks – a crucial aspect of any narrow, possession-centric tactical model. Marcos Rojo and Matteo Darmian rarely venture forward, and thus the opposition defensive lines are rarely pulled out of position. Left one on one out wide, United’s front four are easy to mark.
Craig Dawson may not be particularly quick, but his vast defensive experience should allow him to shepherd Lingard relatively comfortably. The 22-year-old English winger completed seven dribbles and grabbed an assist against CSKA Moscow, but will find Pulis’s wily system a far tougher tactic to exploit.
United have only scored seven home goals this season, while West Brom have kept clean sheets in 57% of matches under Tony Pulis. This game is unlikely to be a classic.
Recommended Bet:
Back under 2.5 goals at 10/11
Cresswell v Deulofeu
West Ham v Everton
Saturday, 15:00
Slaven Bilic’s defensive structure is superbly organised. Utilising a complex 4-1-4-1 system that relies upon restricting space between the lines and overlapping zonal marking on the flanks, it is easy to see why they have excelled when counter-attacking against possession dominant opponents. However, in more evenly distributed fixtures they have struggled to retain shape consistently; Everton’s multi-layered attacking threat will be dangerous, particularly on their right hand side.
West Ham are only really vulnerable when venturing forward, thanks to the cohesiveness of their territorially retreated shape – it is no coincidence that they have collected 13 points away and seven at home, with their best performances coming against last season’s top six.
Their biggest weakness is in behind Aaron Cresswell, whose overlapping runs are vitally important in Bilic’s system. West Ham’s wingers are instructed to stay narrow and offer direct support to the primary outlet Diafra Sakho, and thus Cresswell’s bursts forward are the main source of width. This could be very problematic given Everton’s excellent counter-attacking this season and the form of Gerard Deulofeu.
Deulofeu has begun hugging the touchline in recent weeks, offering a wide outlet that is frequently under-marked due to the power and menace of Romelu Lukaku and Ross Barkley in the centre. He has scored once and assisted twice in his last two league games, exploiting space behind Patrick van Aanholt and Nacho Monreal expertly. West Ham are less cautious at Upton Park, and could find themselves vulnerable in this particular zone.
Recommended Bet:
Back Everton to win at 7/4
Ozil v Dier
Arsenal v Tottenham
Sunday, 16:00, Live on Sky Sports 1
Two teams that favour narrow attacking lines and restrictive high line pressing will most likely play out a congested game in which creative space is difficult to conjure. Interesting mini-battles will develop all over the pitch, but the key zone will be Arsenal’s left-centre, where Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez have been combining to devastating effect.
Ozil has already contributed nine assists this campaign from his laissez-faire floating position behind the central striker, and the key to his creativity is the buzzing movement of Sanchez. The Chilean flits infield at every opportunity and in doing so drags defenders towards him; Ozil ghosts unseen into dangerous pockets largely thanks to the distracting nature of Sanchez’s movement into similar central zones.
Tottenham’s greater defensive solidity this season is largely thanks to the emergence of Eric Dier, who plays to the right of central defensive midfield. His break-up play this season has been exceptional, most notably against Manchester City when both Raheem Sterling and Kevin de Bruyne – operating in a similar model to the Ozil/Sanchez partnership – were nullified easily.
The pace of Joel Campbell could cause trouble for Danny Rose, and Harry Kane’s propensity to drift into the left channel could unsettle Hector Bellerin, but it is in the centre where most of Sunday’s action will take place. Dier will need to be at the top of his game to prevent Arsenal’s two superstars from dominating.
Recommended Bet
Back Arsenal to win and both teams to score at 19/10
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