Sunderland v Newcastle: Don't count on goals in huge game for both clubs
This is arguably one of the biggest North East derbies in recent years, with both clubs struggling for form and locked in the relegation zone. Jaymes Monte picks out his best bets…
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Sunderland v Newcastle
Sunday 25th October, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports 1
Sunderland
Sam Allardyce couldn’t manufacture an immediate impact for his first game in charge against West Brom last weekend, but having only had a couple of days to work with his players that was no indictment on the manager himself.
The Black Cats are rooted to the bottom of the Premier League table with only three points and no wins so far this season. Big Sam has suggested that it may take until January before Sunderland can start thinking about pulling clear of the relegation zone. But one gets the impression that this fixture could turn out to be pivotal in the outcome of their campaign. Win and it can be the catalyst to kick-start the season, lose and the gloom on Wearside will intensify tenfold.
One positive for the hosts is the form of Steven Fletcher who has five goals in his last four games for club and country, although three of those did come against Gibraltar.
Team News: The return of Jermain Lens from suspension will be a welcome boost for Sunderland, but Duncan Watmore and Jack Rodwell will require late fitness tests.
Newcastle
Steve McClaren’s winless run as Newcastle manager in the Premier League was brought to an abrupt end with last weekend’s 6-2 demolition of Norwich. The Magpies edged a nervy first half as they went in 3-2 at the interval, but then really turned the screw in the second half as Georgino Wijnaldum’s four goals completed a 6-2 victory.
On the road, however, Newcastle have lost nine and won none of their last 10 fixtures and the only goal that they have scored away from St James’ Park this season came in that 6-1 defeat at Manchester City.
Wijnaldum’s four last Saturday took his tally for the season to six and makes him the club’s top scorer for the season, having scored on debut against Southampton but then not again until against Chelsea at the end of last month.
Team News: Tim Krul and Steven Taylor are amongst the long-term injury problems that McClaren has to contend with. There are, however, no fresh injury concerns.
Match Odds
Sunderland’s record of five straight derby wins coupled with Newcastle’s extremely poor away record in general makes the Black Cats a tempting bet here. However, whether you’d want to be backing the league’s bottom club that have yet to win this season at a favourites price of 2.64 is a different matter.
Newcastle don’t carry much appeal either at around 2.94, so perhaps the Draw (3.50) is the best bet in a market not to get overly excited about.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Both North East derbies last season ended 1-0 in favour of Sunderland and Newcastle have failed to score in four of the last five meetings. And so on past statistics alone Under 2.5 Goals is the best play at odds of 1.94.
When we also consider Newcastle’s lack of goals on the road this season and the assumption that Allardyce will have set about tightening up his defence as a priority since joining the club, then that 1.94 begins to look even bigger value.
Booking Odds
There’s an obvious tendency for punters to pile into any selection that suggests there will be a high number of bookings shown in any derby match. However, there may just be some value in going against the grain for this one.
Robert Madley takes charge this Sunday and having watched him referee a feisty encounter between Swansea and Stoke last Monday, we know that he is an official that prefers to keep his cards in his pocket when he can. In fact, he’s generally one of the more lenient referees in the Premier League when it comes to cautioning players.
Therefore, I am going to advise a small stakes bet on there being fewer than 45 booking points and a lay of the 45pts and Over selection in this market at around 1.50.
Recommended Bets
2pts Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.94
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