Supercomputer predicts who will win the Premier League title – Arsenal, Man City or Liverpool
The 2025/26 Premier League title race promises to be the most fascinating yet, with Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool locked in an intense battle.
Last term, Liverpool cantered to the title in Arne Slot’s first campaign in charge, and many predicted them to reign supreme in successive seasons after spending over £400million on new players.
But the Reds entered the second international break in second position after losing back-to-back matches against Crystal Palace and Chelsea, while Arsenal secured a 2-0 win over West Ham.
Man City also capitalised on Liverpool’s misfortune with a 1-0 victory over Brentford thanks to Erling Haaland’s first-half goal.
As it stands, the Gunners are one point ahead of Slot’s men at the top of the Premier League and three ahead of the fifth-place Cityzens.
Arsenal predicted to win Premier League title by supercomputer
At the end of September, Football Insider pundit Matt Le Tissier felt Liverpool would win the Premier League after winning each of their opening five games.
But following successive losses, the pendulum has swung in the direction of Arsenal, and that is reflected in Opta’s supercomputer.
After running 10,000 simulations of the season, Arsenal win the league 44% of the time, with Liverpool’s probability dropping to 31.3% and Man City’s standing at 14.3%.
Chances of winning the league
- Arsenal – 44%
- Liverpool – 33.1%
- Man City – 14.3%
The Gunners have come close to winning the league in previous campaigns, but unfortunately lacked the necessary firepower, while City had Haaland and Liverpool had Mohamed Salah.
Arsenal have since signed Viktor Gyokeres from Sporting Lisbon, and the Swede has three goals in seven Premier League appearances.
Le Tissier thinks Gyokeres can define Arsenal’s season with his goals, and hopefully for them, he can become as clinical as he was in the Portuguese top division.
Alan Shearer explains why Arsenal can win the Premier League
Strength in depth is the main issue that has held Mikel Arteta’s side back from winning the title, but that problem was addressed during the summer.
Eight new players arrived at the Emirates, including big-money Premier League moves for Noni Madueke and Eberechi Eze, while Martin Zubimendi joined from Real Sociedad.
Speaking on the Rest Is Football podcast after the win over West Ham before the break, Alan Shearer said quality depth is why Arsenal can win the league.
“I’ve been mightily impressed with Arsenal and even yesterday, the way Odegaard went off and the quality that came on, [Martin] Zubimendi, which then pushed [Declan] Rice a little bit further forward, he got the goal,” Shearer said.
“I don’t know whether you saw the graphic that we had on Match of the Day, that when West Ham beat Arsenal last February at the Emirates, when you looked at Arsenal’s bench, there’s only two players from the nine that are left from that bench.
“And then you look at the bench they had yesterday, when they’re bringing the likes of Zubimendi on, who cost, I don’t know, 40 or 50 million quid.
“That’s the difference for Arsenal. When you look at their squad this year and who they’ve got to come in when they do get injuries or when they need to change the game and make something happen, that’s the difference for them this year. They’re bringing quality on.”
Arsenal travel to Fulham on Saturday, October 18, and they’ll be hoping to preserve their slight advantage over Man City and Liverpool at the top.