Credit: Imago

Evan Lloyd

Tue 10 March 2026 14:04, UK

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Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest will play the first legs of their Europa League last-16 ties on Thursday.

The former finished second in the league stage and will travel to take on French side Lille at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy.

Nottingham Forest finished further down the pack, and qualified for the last 16 after beating Turkish side Fenerbahce over two legs.

They will play FC Midtjylland for a chance to qualify for the quarter-final, although their commitment to the competition could be muddied by their ongoing battle against Premier League relegation.

Villa’s victory and progression in this competition will be important to Unai Emery, both to deliver a first major trophy since 1996, and to ensure Champions League qualification is achieved.

Supercomputer predicts Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest

Villa’s form since the turn of the year has suddenly made the Europa League far more of an important competition.

Undoubtedly, it already had been – the Villans are desperate to win a trophy and Emery would love to win his fifth Europa League – but it did not look necessary for Champions League qualification.

Emery’s team were in a commanding position for the top four, and were even mounting an unlikely title challenge while keeping up with Arsenal and Manchester City.

But injuries and fatigue have set in over the last few months, and Villa now boast only a three-point advantage over fifth-placed Chelsea.

The Villans have won just one of their last seven games across all competitions, and the Europa League has suddenly become of dire importance.

Former scout Mick Brown exclusively told Football Insider this week that Emery could quit Villa in the summer amid frustrations over spending power.

Financial regulations have been a constant barrier for decision-makers at Villa Park, and missing out on Champions League football at this stage would be catastrophic.

Luckily, Opta‘s supercomputer has overwhelmingly predicted by 80.60 per cent that Villa will proceed to the quarter-finals, with Nottingham Forest also handed 59.16 per cent to join them there.

Who will Villa and Nottingham Forest play in the quarter-final?

Should they get there, Villa’s quarter-final will be against either Bologna or Roma. The supercomputer has predicted that it will be against the latter.

That tie would set up a meeting with on-loan forward Donyell Malen, who has been registered for the knockout stages.

The 27-year-old has scored six goals in eight games since joining the Italian side, and is expected to sign permanently in the summer.

Nottingham Forest’s quarter-final tie will be against Porto or Stuttgart, with the supercomputer narrowly favouring the Portuguese side.