Supercomputer predicts Europa League winner after Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest get round of 16 opponents
Aston Villa are heavy favourites to win this year’s edition of the Europa League after the round of 16 draw.
Unai Emery’s side missed out on Champions League qualification on the final day of last season, but have had few issues in Europe’s second-rate competition.
In the league phase, they came second, only missing out on top spot on goal-difference as they won all but one of their matches.
Now, after being drawn against Lille in the next round, Opta on 27 February believes that Aston Villa are the overwhelming favourites to win the competition at 37.26 per cent.
The round of 16 is set ✅#UEL pic.twitter.com/YdHzqBAygZ
— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) February 27, 2026
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Aston Villa are the favourites to win the Europa League
Aston Villa being the favourites will come as little surprise.
In the Premier League, they have been fantastic this season, and currently sit third, 10 points off Arsenal at the summit, whilst also possessing a game in hand.
This has been on show in the Europa League, with the Birmingham outfit rarely having to get out of second gear in the league phase.
Now, Villa are set for a rematch against their Europa Conference League quarter-finalists, before potentially taking on either Roma or Bologna in the next round.
The road to Istanbul 🗺️#UELdraw pic.twitter.com/5Gr8WLIMEj
— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) February 27, 2026
Opta insists that Emery’s side have an 82.46 per cent chance of getting into the quarter-finals, and a 67.02 per cent chance of reaching the last four.
Their odds of reaching the final are at 53.15 per cent, with the supercomputer quick to back Villa’s abilities.
What are Nottingham Forest’s chances of winning the Europa League?
In contrast, the Premier League’s other team in the Europa League is deemed to have a small chance of lifting the trophy.
Forest are set to face FC Midtjylland in the round of 16, and Opta believes they have a 7.03 per cent chance of winning the competition.
While this is not as high as Aston Villa’s odds, it still makes them the fifth-favourite.
As it stands, Roma is the second favourite at 9.11 per cent, while Lyon follows at 8.41 per cent.
Porto are also deemed as a potential outsider, with the Portuguese giants having an 8.07 per cent chance of lifting the Europa League trophy.
Nevertheless, it remains to be seen who wins the competition, as Villa search for their first major trophy since 1996.
To learn more about their Europa League campaign, look to our expert team on Aston Villa News.