Football has “reached peak broadcasting revenues” and Liverpool may not hit the jackpot with a restructured Champions League.
That is according to finance guru and new Football Insider columnist Kieran Maguire, speaking exclusively about the new 36-team Swiss model officially proposed by UEFA earlier in February.
The new format would see the traditional group stage replaced by an expanded league system in which participating teams would play 10 matches each.
Fixtures would be delegated according to seeding and the motivation behind the revamp is widely adjudged to be a potential increase in broadcast revenue.
But Maguire explains that the restructuring might cheapen the domestic TV deal.
Asked how Liverpool would profit from the new model, he told Football Insider correspondent Adam Wiliams: “The new model is the greed-is-good model. We’ve seen the Bundesliga deal decrease in value for domestic rights.
“If you think about where we are at present in terms of the BT, Sky and Amazon deal, that fell in value by 10% for this round but everybody ignored it because the value of the international rights went up.
“But a bloated, expanded Champions League which is going from 125 to 225 matches, that money is going to be concentrated in the hands of the few. There will be a new formula to ensure that the money is held in the hands of relatively few clubs.
“There will be more matches under this Swiss model, but whether that will translate into significantly more TV money, I’m not convinced.
“Let’s say it runs from September to December in terms of the group stages, if there’s a match between the two sides who are 17th and 27th, you aren’t going to get many fans travelling from England and the TV figures are going to be woeful.
“Representatives from BT Sport have effectively said: ‘We’ve reached peak broadcasting revenues.’ They’re expecting a period of retrenchment.”
Liverpool have been one of the dominant teams in Europe in recent years, reaching the Champions League final in successive seasons in 2017-18 and 2018-19.
Football Insider reported earlier this month that average turnover is down 9% on the 2018-19 financial year when the club posted a record turnover of £533m.