Man City could be exposed by Brentford star whose stats defy belief this season
Man City are looking to get back to winning ways after their dramatic draw with Monaco in the Champions League.
Pep Guardiola was fuming with the referee after VAR helped overturn a decision to award Monaco a late penalty in their Champions League clash on 1 October.
Phenomenal Erling Haaland scored twice for Man City with both goals being pegged back by the Ligue 1 side which eventually ended in a 2-2 draw.
The Cityzens now turn their attention to the plucky Brentford who were inspired in their incredible 2-1 victory over Man United on 27 September.
Both Reiss Nelson and Fabio Carvalho are set to return for Brentford, yet Keith Andrews will be turning to another star to bring about the surprise destruction of City.
Clinical Igor Thiago to be Brentford’s key weapon against Man City
Igor Thiago exploited Ruben Amorim’s foolish high-line against Man United on 27 September as he notched his third goal of the 2025-26 season.
The Brazilian ended up bagging a brace against the Red Devils as he got his fourth Premier League goal of the campaign, pushing himself far into the lead as the Bees’ top goalscorer under Andrews.
Remarkably, the former Club Brugge forward has converted all four of his big chances in the English top-flight this season, the most of any player with a 100 per cent big chance conversion rate.
The Irishman will need to lean on the striker’s ruthless finishing to have any chance of getting anything out of the match against Guardiola’s side.
City are one of the best sides in world football and rarely give away the ball to lower-table opposition, which emphasises the need for the west London outfit to take their chances when the opportunities arise.
Thiago’s efficiency to be the key in ensuring Brentford’s survival
On current form, Thiago is one of the most efficient strikers in the Premier League and his potency will give the Bees an increased chance of beating the drop.
When comparing to other relegation-threatened sides, the Brazilian’s 2.05 xG is far greater than that of Wolves‘ Jorgen Strand Larsen (0.60 xG) or Tolu Arokodare (0.22 xG) who have been starved of quality service with neither finding the back of the net.
| Selected Premier League strikers stats 2025-26 | Igor Thiago | Jorgen Strand Larsen | Tolu Arokodare | Callum Wilson | Niclas Fullkrug | Lyle Foster |
| Appearances (starts) | 6 (6) | 4 (3) | 3 (2) | 5 (1) | 5 (4) | 6 (6) |
| Minutes played | 496 | 289 | 169 | 171 | 319 | 502 |
| Goals | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Assists | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals xG | 2.05 | 0.60 | 0.22 | 1.09 | 0.52 | 0.93 |
| Big chances | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Big chance conversion rate % | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Similarly, West Ham‘s Niclas Fullkrug has accrued just 0.52 xG as Nuno Espirito Santo looks to find a way to bring the best out of the misfiring forward.
These clubs are evidently not playing to the best abilities of their frontmen which could see the likes of the Wanderers, Hammers and even Burnley or Leeds be at risk of slipping into a relegation dogfight.
That talismanic poacher can be the difference in seeing a team beat the drop and Andrews has clearly weaponised his attack to play to Thiago’s thirst for finding the back of the net when it matters most.