support

Fri 20 November 2015 11:45, UK

There’s an enthralling game at the Etihad on Saturday evening as Liverpool travel to Man City, with Paul Robinson believing that the visitors are good value to avoid defeat…
Want to make some money on this game? CLICK HERE for Football Insider’s latest betting offers
Man City v Liverpool
Saturday November 21, 17:30 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 1
Man City
With the demise of Chelsea, Man City were expected to walk their way to the Premier League title. It hasn’t quite gone like that so far though as two defeats and two draws from their opening dozen matches leaves them level on points with Arsenal at the top, with Leicester and Man United snapping at their heels.
Obviously it is still early days, but Manuel Pellegrini’s side went into the International break on the back of a poor result at Villa Park. They missed the presence of David Silva and Sergio Aguero that day, and while both of them have been pictured in training this week, even if they are available for selection, they won’t be 100% match fit – especially in Aguero’s case.
That goalless draw at Aston Villa was their second 0-0 in the space of three Premier League games and while there was a 2-1 win over Norwich sandwiched in the middle, they were bailed out by a late Yaya Toure penalty that day.
Liverpool
It was a similar story for Liverpool prior to the International break as after going six unbeaten under Jurgen Klopp, they fell to a hugely disappointing 2-1 defeat at home to Crystal Palace.
The Reds were pretty dominant that day, but suffered an all too familiar fate since the departure of Luis Suarez, as they couldn’t turn their dominance into goals.
Similarly to Sergio Aguero, Daniel Sturridge has also been plagued by injuries, but like the Argentine, he has been in training this week in a bid to return to first team action this weekend. I think there is more chance of Aguero starting than there is Sturridge, but the Englishman will be on the bench at worst, so he will likely have some impact on the match.
Match Odds
Man City 1.70 Liverpool 5.80 The Draw 4.10
City are the warm favourites but then Chelsea were when Liverpool travelled to Stamford Bridge three weeks ago. The Reds ran out 3-1 winners that day – even after going one down – and I certainly rate the hosts as far too short at the 1.70 mark.
They have already been beaten on this ground by West Ham this term and while they have had some convincing victories as well, they were lucky to beat Norwich last time.
Even before Jurgen Klopp arrived on Merseyside, Liverpool had only been beaten once on their travels this season and the German is yet to lose away from home – earning a draw at Spurs and wins at Chelsea and Rubin Kazan.
It’s also worth noting that Liverpool tend to raise their game against the better teams and their style of play is more suited to being away from home at the moment.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 1.82 Under 2.5 Goals 2.20
It’s no surprise to see over 2.5 goals as the shorter price in this market as five of City’s six home games this year have ended with three or more scored, and that includes 6-1 and 5-1 wins.
The stats aren’t as overwhelming for Liverpool, but this fixture has tended to produce goals, as the last eight meetings between the pair have all finished with over 2.5 backers paid out.
As is often the case though, I prefer another goals market that I believe offers slightly better value…
Both Teams to Score?
Backing ‘Yes’ in the both teams to score market will give you bigger odds than backing over 2.5 goals. While I noted that the last eight meetings between these two have finished with three or more scored, they also ended with both teams getting on the scoresheet.
The Citizens have conceded in their last four Premier League games at the Etihad and I think there is more chance of this match finishing 1-1 than a big win to nil either way.
Cash Out
It’s not often that you will get Liverpool to win at odds of 5.80 and I think there could be some mileage in that price, even if they don’t end up with all three points.
The Jurgen Klopp factor is still something to consider as The Reds continue to evolve and get used to his style of play. They are a bit of an unknown quantity and I think they could offer us a good trading option at the odds.
Recommended Bets
Lay Man City @ 1.71
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.86
Want to make some money on this game? CLICK HERE for Football Insider’s latest betting offers