Opta reveals chances of Leicester City being relegated to League One after points deduction
Leicester City have suddenly found themselves in a battle for survival in the Championship, with the Foxes only above the relegation zone on goal difference.
On Thursday, it was confirmed that Leicester City had been awarded a six-point deduction for breaching financial rules.
While it is better than a possible 20-point deduction at the King Power Stadium, it has seen the East Midlands side drop from 17th to 20th, with the Foxes suddenly in a battle for survival.
Dreams of an immediate Premier League return are all but over, with there now being real fears of back-to-back relegations.
However, the chances of his actually happening appear to be low.
It is with disappointment that Leicester City acknowledges today’s Independent Commission decision and the Club will use the time available to consider its next steps.
— Leicester City (@LCFC) February 5, 2026
Opta gives Leicester City a 2.34% chance of relegation
With Leicester City currently managerless after Marti Cifuentes was dismissed, whoever comes in faces a big task.
Only four teams have been relegated from the Premier League to League One in back-to-back seasons, and the Foxes will be aiming to avoid this list.
According to Opta on 6 February, this fate is extremely unlikely.
Here is how that Championship table looks now: pic.twitter.com/5dPPZSaYgf
— Rob Butler (@BobRutler) February 5, 2026
Currently, Leicester are predicted to finish 17th, and only have a 2.34 per cent chance of ending the season in the drop zone.
Finishing the campaign in the playoffs is also still possible, but highly unlikely, with it being seen as a 1.50 per cent chance.
Who is currently predicted to be relegated from the Championship?
As it stands, Sheffield Wednesday, Oxford United and Blackburn Rovers are the three expected to go down at the end of the season.
Wednesday could be relegated by Sheffield United in just a few weeks, and have been given a 100 per cent chance of finishing in the bottom three, with the Owls 39 points from safety.
Opta are also pretty certain that Oxford United will be joining them, at an 80.40 per cent chance.
The U’s are five points from safety, and have a tricky run of games ahead of them, including Coventry, Norwich City and Middlesbrough.
Finally, Blackburn Rovers are slightly more favoured than West Brom to be relegated.
Rovers sacked Valerien Ismael this week, but have still been awarded a 41.42 per cent chance of going down at the end of the season, compared to the Baggies’ 36.08 per cent.