There are big names missing for both sides, but Tobias Gourlay expects Sevilla and Manchester City to serve up another entertaining game in Spain
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Sevilla v Manchester City
Tuesday 19:45 (Live on BT Sport 2)
Sevilla 3.00, City 2.54, The Draw 3.60
Two weeks on from Manchester City’s come-from-behind 2-1 win over Sevilla in north-west England, the pair meet again in southern Spain.
If City win on Tuesday and Juventus beat Borussia Moenchengladbach in Group D’s other game, the Premier League leaders will be into the Champions League last 16 with two rounds to spare.
If City draw on Tuesday, they will maintain their three-point lead over the Spaniards and remain on course for the knockout stages.
For the hosts, Kevin Gameiro, who scored a hat trick on his last appearance at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. That probably means a start for Fernando Llorente. Argentinean midfielder Ever Banega, who the Spanish press believe is a target for Manchester City, missed the weekend’s defeat at Villarreal and is also doubtful for this game.
Manchester City are missing some serious players of their own – Sergio Aguero and David Silva foremost among them – but Manuel Pellegrini’s squad runs deep and the visitors are favourites to take all three points.
Since Pellegrini’s arrival in 2013, City are W5-D1-L1 in group-stage away games – and much improved from the W1-D0-L5 record they built under Roberto Mancini in the two seasons before that.
Even so, we’re not sure they should be favourites. Sevilla have won their last 10 European home matches. Nine of those victories came under Unai Emery during their back-to-back Europa League wins of 2013/14 and 2014/15.
In the Champions League, the Andalusians are W7-D1-L1 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan since 2007 (excluding qualifiers), having scored in all nine of those games. In group stages, they are W6-D1-L0, beating Moenchengladbach 3-0 earlier this term.
Draw No Bet
There are few draws in either team’s recent records, but it’s a live runner this week – if only because Manchester City might eventually be prepared to settle for a point.
The visitors have a good scoring record on the road in Europe (see below) so we’re backing Sevilla to win in this market, where you get your stake back if the game finishes all square.
Both Teams to Score?
Both teams are missing some important attackers, but they will both still bring significant goal threats and leaky defences to Tuesday’s game.
Previously, it’s taken the very best teams to stop Manchester City away from home in Europe: they’ve hit the back of the net in 11/15, with Barcelona, Bayern Munich (twice) and Borussia Dortmund the only hosts to shut them down.
At the other end, Opta has noticed that City have logged just one clean sheet in 18 attempts in this competition.
Sevilla have scored 14 times in their last five outings at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. Since March this year, they’ve struck at least twice in 13/15 appearances there.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
When Manchester City have scored away from home in the Champions League, 10/11 have finished with Over 2.5 Goals.
Across La Liga and the Champions League, all six of Sevilla’s home games this season have delivered Over 2.5 Goals, making it a worthy 1.77 favourite for this match.
Because City might eventually accept a draw, we marginally prefer a Both Teams to Score bet that covers the 1-1 result.
To Score
Kevin De Bruyne has scored in eight of his last 12 appearances for Manchester City and Belgium. He notched the stoppage-time winner when these two met a fortnight ago and, in the absence of Aguero, looks like the man most likely to maintain City’s good scoring record.
Best Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.66
Recommended Bets
Back Sevilla Draw No Bet @ 2.16
Back Kevin De Bruyne To Score @ 3.50
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