Supercomputer predicts 25-26 Premier League champions as Aston Villa join title race
Aston Villa’s dreams of a spectacular surge for the Premier League title are growing more realistic by the game.
With their 10th consecutive victory across all competitions on Sunday, Villa beat Manchester United 2-1 at Villa Park.
Morgan Rogers‘ stunning brace was enough to secure Unai Emery‘s team a 16th win in 18, on what has been an unbelievable run of form.
Arsenal beat Everton 1-0 on Saturday and remain at the top of the Premier League table for now, despite losing to Villa at the start of the month.
Manchester City beat West Ham 3-0 and also remain in the race, with Pep Guardiola‘s team looking to get their hands back on the trophy.
Aston Villa title chances grow after latest win
Incredibly, the stats say that Villa should not even be close to competing for the Premier League title this season.
Only five teams have accrued fewer expected goals than Emery’s team this season, with the Spaniard’s men scoring 27 goals from just 18.7 expected.
| Premier League 2025-26 | Aston Villa | Arsenal | Manchester City |
| Expected goals | 18.7 | 29.4 | 33 |
| Expected goals against | 23.3 | 10.1 | 18.7 |
| Expected points | 19.2 | 36.9 | 36.9 |
And the defensive side suggests an overperformance too, with Villa conceding 18 goals from an expected goals against number of 23.3 – a tally bettered by 12 teams.
Going off Opta‘s expected points metric, which simulates the likely winner of each and every game based on their expected goals tallies, Villa should be 16th on 19 points.
The question is whether the stats will eventually catch up to Emery’s team. They often do, but perhaps this is the time in which they are defied.
Opta’s supercomputer has handed Villa a 5.54 per cent chance of winning an extraordinary first Premier League title, with Arsenal‘s 68.70 per cent still leading the way while Manchester City retain 24.35 per cent.
Stats vs actuality to decide Premier League title
If Villa are the team looking to defy the stats, Arsenal are the team looking to back them up.
The Gunners have the league’s third-best expected goals tally, and have conceded, by far, the fewest expected goals against.
The expected points number actually suggests that they should have a bigger lead over Manchester City, although Mikel Arteta‘s team are narrowly overperforming.
It’s a similar case for Manchester City, who offer the league’s best expected goals tally.
But, ultimately, the most important stat lies in the points column of the real Premier League table. Whether the expected numbers interfere with that tally in the coming months remains to be seen.