Supercomputer predicts Premier League top four after festive GW18 fixtures
The Premier League looks set for another fierce battle for the top four positions after some significant results in gameweek 18.
There were wins for Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Manchester United in the post-Christmas games, with Chelsea the main losers at the top end of the table.
David Raya starred for Arsenal in their 2-1 triumph over Brighton, as he produced a fine display to help retain his side’s place at the summit of the table.
However, there was plenty of movement below the Gunners, as the race to secure Champions League qualification took a major twist.
Liverpool set for Champions League berth ahead of Chelsea
Liverpool edged past bottom club Wolves with a 2-1 victory on Saturday afternoon, as they continued their recent resurgence.
The reigning champions were in disarray across October and November as they endured a dismal run of six defeats out of seven league games, but a six-match unbeaten run has since got them firmly back on track.
That run has drastically eased the pressure on Arne Slot, and now has Liverpool back in a strong position in the race for the top four.
| Rank | Team | Expected Points | Top Four Chance |
| 1 | Arsenal | 83.16 | 99.76% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 78.27 | 98.69% |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 73.85 | 93.11% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 66.45 | 61.41% |
| 5 | Chelsea | 60.55 | 21.95% |
| 6 | Manchester United | 57.38 | 8.93% |
The Merseysiders leapfrogged Chelsea into fourth after they were beaten at home by Aston Villa last weekend, and Opta’s supercomputer expects them to finish in that position at the end of the season.
Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa are predicted to make up the final top three, with that trio all assessed over a staggering 90 per cent chance of securing Champions League qualification.
Liverpool are deemed to have a 61.41 per cent chance of finishing in the top four, while the chasing duo of Chelsea and Manchester United are likely to miss out, with just 21.95 per cent and 8.93 per cent chance, respectively.
High-flying Sunderland are expected to fall away dramatically, as they are predicted to finish 14th, with less than a one per cent chance of securing a Champions League spot.
Why Chelsea may finish fifth and still qualify for the Champions League
Enzo Maresca is under pressure at Chelsea after an inconsistent start to the season, but all is not lost for the Blues if they do finish fifth.
The recently revamped Champions League format now awards two additional places to the leagues with the strongest performance in European competitions, and one of those was awarded to the Premier League last term.
English football has an unprecedented nine clubs competing on the continent this season, and their performances will be averaged out and played off against the other leagues at the end of the season.
That means that Maresca’s men could yet finish fifth and still secure a spot in Europe’s premier club competition.
If that scenario were to play out, then the Europa League place would be passed down to the sixth-placed team, which is predicted to be Manchester United at the moment.