Supercomputer predicts who’ll win Premier League title race as GW15 ends

Arsenal and Man City are expected to go down to the wire to win the Premier League this season as a dark horse also enters the fray.

Still sitting at the top of the table, Arsenal suffered a setback in their title bid in a 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa on 6 December.

The Gunners’ loss opened the door to Man City to make up some ground as Rayan Cherki ran the show in a 3-0 victory over Sunderland on 6 December.

The latest Premier League results have seen the Cityzens close down the gap on Arsenal to just two points as the congested winter period could prove to be pivotal moment in the title race.

Man City manager Pep Guardiola pumping his fists
Credit: Hasan Karim, Breaking Media

Despite Aston Villa stumble Arsenal still tipped to clinch Premier League glory

Following the culmination of the 15th round of the English top-flight 2025-26, Opta Analyst have given their latest predictions of who is odds on to win the title.

The Gunners still sit pretty in first place, despite the defeat to the Villains, and have a 72.28 per cent chance of Premier League glory with 80.16 expected points.

In second place are the Cityzens, who are predicted to finish the campaign with 72.98 points, giving them an 18.77 per cent chance of Pep Guardiola winning his seventh English top-flight title.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta stands with his arms folded on the touchline.
Credit: Imago

Intriguingly, due to a turbulent defence of their 2024-25 trophy, Liverpool are expected to finish in sixth place, with the likes of Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Aston Villa all above them.

Aston Villa the dark horses for the Premier League title

Strikingly, the Villains are expected to finish third with 68.32 points after a seismic victory over the Gunners at Villa Park.

Unai Emery’s side suffered a dreadful start to the 2025-26 campaign, failing to win in any of their first five matches.

Aston Villa manager Unai Emery applauds supporters at Villa Park.
Credit: Imago

Many neutral fans even considered that the Spaniard’s time in the Midlands had come to an end, yet the turn around has been nothing short of emphatic.

Since a 3-1 victory over Fulham on 28 September, Villa have dropped just three points in the league when they lost 2-0 to Liverpool on 1 November.

The remarkable display against Arsenal demonstrated that Emery’s team should not be dismissed as potential title contenders and they are certainly the dark horses for the Premier League title.