By support

2nd Nov, 2015 | 3:31pm

Tottenham v Aston Villa: Confident Spurs to add to Villa's woes

The only problem Spurs will have here is getting the first goal, but as long as it arrives at a reasonable time they’ll get two, and probably more.
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Back Tottenham -1 to Win @ 2.26
Tottenham v Aston Villa
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1
Tottenham
Flying slightly under the radar, Tottenham made it nine Premier League games without defeat with a resounding 1-5 victory at Bournemouth last Sunday, a win that moved Mauricio Pochettino’s men up to sixth in the table just three points off the top four.
With one of the youngest sides in the Premier League Tottenham’s incredible workrate and high pressing game is extremely difficult to play against and is starting to pay dividends with four wins and two draws from their last six league outings, including that stunning 4-1 victory over Manchester City at White Hart Lane.
Harry Kane was back amongst the goals with a hat-trick at Dean Court last week, Christian Eriksen scored a stunning brace of free-kicks recently at Swansea, Eric Dier (holding) and Dele Alli (attacking) have been superb from their midfield roles, and even Erik Lamela is starting to show why the club paid in excess of £25m for his services two seasons ago.
In fact, with no fewer than 10 outfield players already finding the back of the net this term, some early-season fears of ‘where are the goals going to come from’ have already been banished.
Team News: Nacer Chadli (ankle), Nabil Bentaleb (ankle), Heung-Min Son (foot) and Alex Pritchard (ankle) are all unavailable for Tottenham meaning Pochettino is likely to go with the same XI that thrashed Bournemouth last Sunday.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa’s season has been a complete disaster so far. A smash and grab at Bournemouth on day one and a draw with hapless Sunderland means Tim Sherwood accumulated just four points from a possible 30, and he was inevitably relieved of his duties after last week’s home loss to Swansea.
Kevin MacDonald is in temporary charge and will be looking to end a run of six league defeats in a row for the Midlands club when he names his second side as caretaker manager, his first resulting in a 2-1 defeat at Southampton in the Capital One Cup in midweek.
Only Rudy Gestede (three) and Scott Sinclair (two) have scored more than once in the Premier League this campaign, and with Christian Benteke now a Liverpool player, Jordan Ayew – unlike his brother at Swansea – struggling to find his feet at this level, and Gabriel Agbonlahor without a goal this term, it’s clear to see where Villa’s problems lie.
And as Michael Lintorn explains here, with Villa already four points from safety whoever comes in on a permanent basis will have a huge task on his hands.
Team News: Joleon Lescott is fit again and should return after missing the midweek game with an injury while Idrissa Gana and Adama Traore are expected to return to the squad after missing the defeat to Southampton.
Match Odds
No surprise to see Tottenham trading as heavy favourites at 1.44 to take all three points from Monday night’s fixture (Villa 9.20, Draw 5.00), a win that would move the Lilywhites up to fifth in the table and just one point behind Manchester United, a side many people believe to be genuine title contenders.
Adding confidence in a home win is that fact that Spurs have a great recent record against Villa, winning nine and drawing three of 12 Premier League meetings prior to April’s shock 0-1 home loss to Sherwood’s men. But I’m confident we can completely forget about that reversal – Tottenham had little to play for at the time and Villa were in a rich vein of form as they steadily moved away from the relegation zone.
Then and now is like chalk and cheese – Pochettino’s men are in excellent league form and look full of confidence while Villa are on a shocking winless run and just don’t look to have the ability to turn their fortunes around.
With Spurs’ high intensity and eagerness to press the opposition and win the ball back as quickly as possible it’s easy to envisage mistakes amongst a Villa team lacking confidence. There’ll be no time on the ball for MacDonald’s men here, they’ll spend most of the game on the back foot, and I can’t recommend any other outcome than a comfortable home win.
The only problem Spurs will have here is getting the first goal, but as long as it arrives at a reasonable time they’ll get two, and probably more. Tottenham -1 can be backed at 2.26 and that’s my best bet of the game.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Tottenham have conceded just three times at White Hart Lane in the league this term, recording clean sheets against top-half hopefuls Liverpool, Everton and Crystal Palace, while they restricted title faovurites Man City to just a solitary goal.
Consider also that Villa have scored just twice in their last six visits to Spurs then you may be slightly surprised to see Under 2.5 Goals available at 2.14 and ‘overs’ the favourite at 1.86.
But I think the market has it about right, in fact I’d have Over 2.5 Goals slightly shorter as this doesn’t appeal as a game that will be ‘dead-locked’ between two sides of similar ability.
Tottenham are set for a comfortable win in my opinion and are more than capable of landing the ‘overs’ bet on their own, but it’s also worth noting that when Villa have fell behind on their travels they have battled back to get on the scoresheet at Sunderland, Liverpool, and Palace, perhaps suggesting that they have more fight in them than they have ability.
To Score (anytime)
I usually treat First Goalscorer and Anytime Goalscorer bets more conservatively than I do other wagers as, if we’re being honest, they can be a bit of a lottery at times. Kevin du Bruyne scoring for fun for example, but when I backed him at home to Bournemouth recently Man City scored five and he didn’t get one!
But with Christian Eriksen I’m applying more logic than I usually would. I can definitely see Spurs having lots of possession in the final third, I envisage Villa being hurried into making a few mistakes, and we know that Eriksen is Tottenham’s main free-kick taker, a superb one at that.
I expect the extremely talented 23-year-old to have plenty of chances on Monday night and I’m backing him to convert at least once.
Recommended Bets
Back Tottenham -1 to Win @ 2.26 (best bet)
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.86
Back Christian Eriksen To Score (anytime) @ 8/5
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