xG vs goals: The Premier League forwards who are over and underachieving
The 2025-26 Premier League season is underway and well over 100 goals have already hit the back of the net.
Last weekend’s Game Week 5 followed the trend of this season’s title race looking set to be one of the most competitive in recent seasons.
The difference makers come next May will be the forwards, but which ones are under and overachieving after five matches?
Football Insider has taken a look at which club’s attackers are outperforming in front of goal and there are some surprise names….
Erling Haaland has the Premier League’s highest xG excluding penalties
Expected goals (xG) is a performance metric that assigns a probability to an attempt being scored based on historical data.
Factors such as shot angle, distance, body part used and whether it was a ‘big chance’ or not contribute towards the probability’s calculation. These data points give a good indication of how many goals a player should have scored.
Unsurprisingly, Manchester City‘s Erling Haaland, also the league’s top goalscorer with six goals, leads the way with an xG (excluding penalties) of 6.26.
| Forward | Club | xG (excl. pens) | Goals (excl. pens) | Differential |
| Erling Haaland | Man City | 6.26 | 6.00 | – 0.26 |
| Jaidon Anthony | Burnley | 2.06 | 3.00 | + 0.94 |
| Beto | Everton | 2.00 | 1.00 | – 1.00 |
| Antoine Semenyo | Bournemouth | 1.99 | 2.00 | + 0.01 |
| Chris Wood | Nott’m Forest | 1.99 | 2.00 | + 0.01 |
| Ismaila Sarr | Crystal Palace | 1.98 | 2.00 | + 0.02 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace | 1.89 | 1.00 | – 0.89 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | Man United | 1.85 | 1.00 | – 0.85 |
| Hugo Ekitike | Liverpool | 1.78 | 3.00 | + 1.22 |
| Richarlison | Spurs | 1.64 | 3.00 | + 1.36 |
| Joao Pedro | Chelsea | 1.50 | 2.00 | + 0.50 |
| Viktor Gyokeres | Arsenal | 1.34 | 2.00 | + 0.66 |
| Iliman Ndiaye | Everton | 1.30 | 2.00 | + 0.70 |
Other players outperforming their expected number of goals include Burnley‘s Jaidon Anthony, Chelsea‘s Joao Pedro, Everton‘s Iliman Ndiaye and, despite his lacklustre performance against Manchester City on Sunday (21 September), Arsenal‘s Viktor Gyokeres.
There are two clear standout performers when it comes to efficiency in front of goal, though…
Richarlison and Hugo Ekitike the most efficient in front of goal
So far this season, Tottenham‘s Richarlison and Liverpool‘s Hugo Ekitike have been the Premier League‘s most clinical finishers.
The pair have netted three goals each but neither have been expected to score more than one at this stage of the campaign.
Richarlison has been reinvented under Thomas Frank and is the main reason why Spurs are third in the table with 10 points from a possible 15.
And despite joining in the summer, and having Alexander Isak breathing down his neck, Ekitike has lead the Reds’ line almost perfectly.
The French forward has scored three league goals (excluding penalties), 1.36 more than he should have, statistically.