Harry Kane out: Why Thomas Tuchel must use this England starting XI against Wales
If England are to continue the momentum built from the last international break, Thomas Tuchel needs to choose his starting XI wisely in the absence of captain Harry Kane.
England face Wales on Thursday evening for the first time since defeating them 3-0 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
The Three Lions have won each of their last seven games against the Dragons, and they are only currently on longer winning streaks against three nations: Luxembourg (9), Andorra (8) and San Marino (8).
Harry Kane was forced off with an injury to his ankle in Bayern Munich’s final match before the international break, and Tuchel now has a tough decision as to who should replace England’s all-time top scorer.
England had struggled to convince under Tuchel before a pair of wins against Andorra and Serbia in the September international break gave room to positivity, but Kane’s absence will be keenly felt in this fixture.
Kane has scored over a quarter of England’s goals since his debut in 2015, while he has also scored more goals for England than the rest of Tuchel’s squad put together (74 to 53).
A debut in defence for late entry to squad
Dean Henderson has performed wonderfully for Crystal Palace in recent seasons and he is more than deserving of a start for England, but there is no reason at all not to start Jordan Pickford, who has been a stable No 1 for more than seven years now for England.
Pickford recently made his 300th appearance in the Premier League for Everton and while he has prevented fewer goals in the competition this season than Henderson, James Trafford and Nick Pope, he still has his England spot locked down for the foreseeable future.
Even though he has mostly played on the opposite side in recent years, Djed Spence is the only right-back in the England squad, and so that position picks itself.
Spence is largely in the squad based on the form he showed last season, where he had the best one-on-one defensive numbers of any full-back in the Premier League, successfully tackling 76.7 per cent of opposition dribblers.
John Stones and Marc Guehi would be an ideal pairing at centre-back, and although this is potentially harsh on Ezri Konsa, Jarell Quansah and Dan Burn, each of whom are performing well this season, Stones and Guehi are England’s most talented players in this position.
Despite his struggles to stay fit, Manchester City are still hoping to tie Stones down to a new contract.
Stones was not successfully dribbled past by an opposition player a single time in the Premier League last season, while Guehi leads all central defenders for tackles in the defensive third season (14).
Nico O’Reilly was a late addition to the squad due to the abence of Reece James, but the Man City youngster shpuld be given his first England cap by Tuchel in place of Myles Lewis-Skelly.
Lewis-Skelly is a wonderful player, but he has played just 83 minutes of Premier League football for Arsenal this season, while O’Reilly is excelling on a weekly basis for City.
O’Reilly is averaging more tackles per 90 minutes than any other City player in the top-flight this season (3.9), while he ranks second for posssession won in the defensive third per 90 (2.8), and second against for shots blocked per 90 (0.8).
Jack-of-all-trades double pivot and another Arsenal man at No 10
Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson will start at the base of the midfield, and England fans should be hopeful that this continues to be the case in the long-term.
Both of these midfield powerhouses could have been playing for different home nations this week. Rice was capped three times for the Republic of Ireland, while Anderson played for Scotland’s youth teams from under-16 to under-21 levels.
We uncovered data that proved Rice was the Premier League’s MVP this season, with the Arsenal midfielder providing more net value to his team than any other player in the Premier League.
Among central midfielders, Rice is one of the competition’s leaders for progressive carries, passes completed and expected assists.
Anderson has been linked with a move to Man United and one look at the data makes it clear why; he leads all Premier League players this season for pass completed, touches, ball carries and ball recoveries, while he is great at winning fouls.
While across his first two caps last month against Andorra and Serbia, Anderson led all England players for successful passes (182), forward passes (48), possession won (23), successful long passes (10) and tackles (five).
Morgan Rogers and Morgan Gibbs-White haven’t done enough this season to be deserving of a starting berth for the national team, and England’s No 10 position should therefore be given to Eberechi Eze for this match.
Eze is averaging 0.6 assists per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, the fourth-best figure in the division. He is also averaging a career-high 5.1 progressive passes per 90 minutes.
Who should deputise for Harry Kane?
Bukayo Saka should start on the right wing for England in this match after successfully rebuilding his fitness following a hamstring injury.
Saka has scored in each of his last two games for Arsenal, while only his teammates can be blamed for the fact he is yet to assist a goal this season.
He is averaging 0.38 expected assists per 90 minutes this season, the second-most in the Premier League after Estevao.
While there isn’t much in the way of a statistical case to be made, Anthony Gordon should start on the left wing for England.
Gordon is yet to score or assist in league action this season and he has had a stop-start campaign in the top-flight after receiving a straight red card against Liverpool.
Nonetheless, he has scored three goals in two appearance in the UEFA Champions League this term and his off-ball work-rate is desirable for Tuchel.
Ollie Watkins has scored just one goal in the Premier League this season, and his expected goals per 90 (0.23), shots per 90 (1.7) and shots on target per 90 (0.45) are all at career lows in an Aston Villa shirt.
Tuchel should instead opt to reward Marcus Rashford with another start for England in the No 9 role.
Rashford has three goals and four assists in all competitions for Barcelona, contributing to a goal in each of his last four appearances.
In league action meanwhile, his 0.78 goals and assists per 90 minutes is the highest mark of his career when excluding penalties.