Credit: Imago

Evan Lloyd

Mon 16 March 2026 14:30, UK

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Manchester United are in the driving seat to qualify for the Champions League after beating Aston Villa on Sunday.

The Red Devils won 3-1 at Old Trafford, with goals from Casemiro, Matheus Cunha and Benjamin Sesko cancelling out Ross Barkley’s first-half equaliser.

Michael Carrick’s side took a blow when they were beaten by Newcastle United at the start of the month, but they have bounced back superbly and now have Champions League football in their sights.

Instead, the battle for fourth is heating up, with Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool all failing to win over the weekend.

Man United’s form has largely made them a shoo-in for the top three, with the focus now centring around the teams below them.

Supercomputer updates Champions League prediction

The thought of Man United qualifying for the Champions League seemed laughable just a few months ago.

The Red Devils were incredibly inconsistent under the management of Ruben Amorim, and even looked as if they could slip down towards the type of lows that Tottenham are currently undergoing.

Yet three months later, Man United are the favourites for the top four and look increasingly likely to finish behind only Manchester City and Arsenal.

Last month, ex-Everton chief executive Keith Wyness exclusively told Football Insider that Carrick will be appointed by Man United if he guides his team to Champions League qualification.

The 44-year-old can all but celebrate the new job already, with Opta‘s supercomputer giving his team an 80.59 per cent chance of finishing in the Champions League spots.

Villa’s shaky form of late has seen their chances of what had looked to be a guaranteed spot in the top four reduced to just 56.49 per cent.

Liverpool and Chelsea remain more outside contenders for the spots, with 33.29 per cent and 23.15 per cent chances, respectively, given by the supercomputer.

Will the Premier League get an extra Champions League spot?

The Premier League is on course to offer Champions League football to the league’s top five again this season, although it is not guaranteed yet.

The Premier League lead UEFA’s coefficient table, and it’s a commanding lead due to the successful European group stages enjoyed by the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa.

Last week’s matches were painful for the coefficient score, however, with several clubs losing and risking exiting Europe at the last 16 stage.

But the Premier League should, in theory, have enough to achieve a top-two finish nonetheless, especially if favourites Arsenal and Villa can go deep into their respective competitions.