Mike Ashley would be forced to knock around £100m off his asking price for Newcastle United if the club were relegated this season.
That is according to finance expert and new Football Insider columnist Kieran Maguire, speaking exclusively with the Magpies treading water in the fight for Premier League survival.
Newcastle have picked up nine points from the last 45 available and are just four points above the drop zone.
Ashley has been attempting to sell Newcastle for over a decade, with interest in the North East club hotting up in recent years.
A concrete takeover attempt came from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund in 2020, while American financier Joseph DaGrosa recently reiterated his interest.
Maguire explained that Ashley would need to scale down his valuation of the club in the event of relegation but that in itself wouldn’t make a takeover more likely.
“The price that has been discussed with regards to the PIF takeover was £300m,” he told Football Insider correspondent Adam Williams.
“Mike Ashley was originally asking for about £350m but on the back of Covid, he’s had to drop the price. If they are out of the Premier League, there’s no guarantee you’re getting back first season.
“Anybody buying the club this summer if Newcastle were in the Championship is immediately looking at £60m less in broadcast money and no guarantee the club is going to return the following season.
“I think he would have to knock off around a third of his asking price, to about £200m. The reason I say that is because if I was a buyer then why would I buy Newcastle in the Championship when I can buy Derby County who are allegedly going for £60m?
“I think the chances of being taken over in the Championship would be hurt. In the Championship, you’d pay a big premium because it’s Newcastle but you’d be thinking why not buy Derby for a fraction of what I could spend on Newcastle.”
The Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia pursued a Newcastle takeover throughout much 2020.
The deal collapsed owing to a dispute between the Premier League and PIF over Saudi-based pirate television network BeoutQ.