Credit: Imago

Evan Lloyd

Tue 3 February 2026 16:30, UK

Arsenal have only strengthened their grip as the favourites to win the Premier League after the winter transfer window closed, in the supercomputer’s eyes.

It was a quiet day, in terms of the first team, at the Emirates Stadium on transfer deadline day, with Arsenal signing 18-year-old Evan Mooney and Jaden Dixon for the academy.

The Gunners did not bring in any major new signings throughout the window, and it was title rivals Man City who were the busier of the two clubs.

Man City bought Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi in deals that, when combined, are worth over £80million.

But despite the efforts of both players, Man City gave up a two-goal lead to draw with Tottenham on Sunday – a result that has proved massively damaging for their title ambitions.

Supercomputer predicts the Premier League’s top spots

Arsenal have been the strong favourites to win the Premier League for some time now, but recent results have only further strengthened their chances.

After consecutive draws against Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, before they were stunned by Man United at the Emirates Stadium, the Gunners looked to have hit a serious stumbling block.

Their wobble coincided with a terrible run of Man City form at the same time, however, with Pep Guardiola‘s team having won just one of their last six.

And Aston Villa have been unable to take advantage either, with dismal home defeats to Everton and Brentford in recent weeks proving incredibly costly.

Opta‘s supercomputer has now handed Mikel Arteta‘s side a whopping 91.38 per cent chance of winning the Premier League, while closest challenger Man City has retained just a 5.65 per cent shot.

Looking slightly lower down the table, the race for the top four appears to have boiled down to just three teams.

Liverpool remain the narrow favourites to qualify for the Champions League with a 41.42 per cent chance, but Chelsea‘s strong recent form has seen their chance grow to 40.19 per cent.

The race for the Europa League remains more open, with Brentford’s 7.18 per cent chance making them narrow favourites outside of the three competing for top four.

Supercomputer predicts relegation

The race for Premier League safety has taken several twists and turns in recent weeks. The supercomputer has almost entirely resigned Burnley and Wolves to relegation, but all three of the clubs above them remain under threat.

Each club strengthened in the winter transfer window, although Leeds will be frustrated that they could not bring in more than just Facundo Buonanotte.

The Whites had been on a strong run, but have now been given a bigger chance of relegation than Nottingham Forest.

Both clubs’ less-than-10 per cent chances of going down pale in comparison to West Ham‘s 82.78 per cent, however.

The supercomputer appears to be certain on the Hammers’ fate this season, despite a recent run of stronger performance and results.